ONQ LAB — T-002
Mass, Direction and Historical Polity Breakdown

REPRODUCIBILITY PACKAGE
September 2026

REGISTERED RESULT
Invalid / Uninterpretable

T-002 did not meet its preregistered primary feasibility thresholds.
The confirmatory models were therefore not fitted.

Observed:
543 eligible state-decade landmarks
98 analytical polities/lineages
53 distinct qualifying breakdown onsets
46 polities with qualifying breakdown onsets

Required:
600 eligible landmarks
60 polities
80 distinct breakdown onsets
30 polities with breakdown onsets

The registered result neither supports nor contradicts the narrow
PrF Mass/Direction claim.

A strictly post-confirmatory exploratory analysis was subsequently
performed. Those findings are included separately and do not alter
T-002's registered evidence category.

OSF REGISTRATION
DOI: 10.17605/OSF.IO/GAFMY
Registration: https://osf.io/gafmy/

CONTENTS

T-002_Preregistration_v1.0
Frozen preregistered protocol.

T-002_Freeze_Record
Hashes and freeze record for the preregistered specification.

T-002_PreOutcome_Gate_Report
Record of the pre-outcome execution gate.

T-002_Final_Execution_Report
Official confirmatory execution report.

T-002_Execution_Package
Complete confirmatory reproducibility materials, execution logs,
code, audits, provenance and associated files.

Exploratory_T-002_Follow-up_Report
Strictly post-confirmatory exploratory analysis.

EXPLORATORY_T-002_Follow-up_Package
Reproducibility materials for the exploratory follow-up.

EVIDENTIARY ORDER

The registered confirmatory result is authoritative.

The exploratory follow-up is diagnostic only and must not be
interpreted as altering, rescuing or replacing T-002's registered
evidence category.